Bitcoin Analytics · Chart

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator (AUD)

The Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is one of 9 valuation signals in Tier 1 of the SatoshiMacro Model, a free 48-signal Bitcoin cycle confluence indicator. Published by Philip Swift in 2021 as the companion to his Pi Cycle Top, it marks cycle bottoms when the 150-day moving average crosses above the 471-day moving average multiplied by 0.745. Has fired at the 2015, 2018, 2020 COVID, and 2022 cycle bottoms. AUD-native, computed client-side on every page load from the daily BTC AUD price seed.

Last updated: 17 May 2026 By Govind Satoshi

Chart

BTC AUD daily price (gold), 150-day moving average (blue), 471-day moving average × 0.745 (red dashed). Green vertical markers + dots at the top indicate historical bottom-signal firings. Hover any point for the exact price, MA values, and current ratio.

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Has the Pi Cycle Bottom fired recently?

The Pi Cycle Bottom is a rare signal - it fires only during the deepest weeks of bear markets, with approximately one firing per cycle. The most recent firing was around early-to-mid 2023, alongside the post-FTX recovery. The chart above marks every historical firing with green vertical dashed lines + a green dot at the top of the line. As of the most recent daily close, the current ratio reading is shown in the stat grid - values above 1.0 indicate the indicator has fired and Bitcoin is in a post-bottom recovery zone; values below 0.5 indicate deep bear territory.

Historical Pi Cycle Bottom firings

Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator firings since 2014. Each firing date represents the 150-day MA crossing above the 471-day MA times 0.745.
Cycle bottomApproximate firing dateBTC AUD context
2015 bear bottom~early-to-mid 2015BTC AUD near A$300 - the post-Mt-Gox capitulation phase
2018-2019 bear bottom~early-to-mid 2019BTC AUD near A$5,000 - end of the ICO-crash bear market
2020 COVID bottom~April-May 2020BTC AUD near A$10,000 - rapid recovery from the March COVID crash
2022-2023 bear bottom~early 2023BTC AUD near A$25,000 - post-FTX recovery phase

Each historical firing has been followed by a multi-month sustained rally back above the 200-day moving average, then eventually to new cycle highs. The signal is most reliable when accompanied by other cycle-bottom indicators (Risk Metric below 0.15, Mayer Multiple below 0.6, Fear and Greed below 25).

Pi Cycle Top vs Pi Cycle Bottom: using them together

The two Pi Cycle indicators form a complete cycle-position pair:

  • Pi Cycle TOP (111DMA × 1 vs 350DMA × 2): fires at cycle peaks. Historical firings: 1 (Nov 2017). The 2021 cycle peak did NOT trigger this signal.
  • Pi Cycle BOTTOM (150DMA × 1 vs 471DMA × 0.745): fires at cycle bottoms. Historical firings: 4 (2015, 2019, 2020, 2023). More reliable than the top signal.

The asymmetry is striking: the bottom signal has fired ~4x more often than the top signal across the same time period. Philip Swift has commented that cycle bottoms are mechanically easier to identify than tops because they tend to involve sharper, faster price action (capitulation events) whereas tops form via prolonged distribution phases that vary in duration. Use both signals together for full cycle-positioning context: the Pi Cycle Top page shows the top signal's chart and history.

What is the Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Bottom is a moving-average crossover indicator developed by Philip Swift (the founder of LookIntoBitcoin) in 2021 as the companion to his earlier Pi Cycle Top. The mechanics:

  1. Component A: Bitcoin's 150-day simple moving average.
  2. Component B: Bitcoin's 471-day simple moving average, multiplied by 0.745.
  3. Signal: Fires when Component A crosses above Component B. Equivalently: when the ratio (150DMA ÷ (471DMA × 0.745)) crosses above 1.0.
  4. Interpretation: A historically rare moving-average crossover that has aligned with Bitcoin's cycle bottoms with high (though not perfect) reliability.

The 471-day window is approximately 150 × pi (hence the name "Pi Cycle"). The 0.745 multiplier is an empirical adjustment that makes the crossover line up with historical bottoms. The model is heuristic, not derived from a theoretical first-principles framework.

Methodology

  1. Data source. Daily BTC/AUD close prices from January 2014 onwards, sourced from CryptoCompare primary + CoinGecko fallback (same pipeline as all SatoshiMacro chart tools).
  2. 150-day MA. Trailing simple moving average of the last 150 daily closes.
  3. 471-day MA × 0.745. Trailing simple moving average of the last 471 daily closes, multiplied by 0.745.
  4. Firing detection. A firing occurs on the first day the 150DMA value exceeds the 471DMA × 0.745 value after having been at or below it the previous day. Green markers on the chart mark every such crossing.
  5. Resilience. Static-first: the daily BTC AUD data file in the repo is the source of truth. If the upstream price source is unreachable, the previous data file is preserved and the indicator continues to render with the last-known-good data.

Limitations

  • Small sample. Only 4 historical firings in post-2014 Bitcoin history. Statistical confidence in the signal's future reliability is moderate.
  • Heuristic, not theoretical. The 0.745 multiplier and 471-day window were derived empirically by curve-fitting to historical bottoms. The model has no first-principles basis - if Bitcoin's cycle structure changes, the model parameters may need to change too.
  • Confirmation indicator, not leading. The signal fires AT the bottom, not BEFORE. By the time it fires, the deepest of the capitulation phase has typically passed. Use as a confirmation of "the bottom is in" rather than a forward forecast.
  • Lagging from MA construction. Both moving averages are trailing, so the signal date typically lags the actual price low by several weeks.
  • Single-indicator reasoning. Use alongside other cycle-bottom indicators for confluence.

Frequently asked questions

The Pi Cycle Bottom Indicator is a mechanical Bitcoin cycle-bottom signal published by Philip Swift in 2021 as the companion to his earlier Pi Cycle Top. It fires when Bitcoin's 150-day moving average crosses above the 471-day moving average multiplied by 0.745. The ratio (150DMA ÷ (471DMA × 0.745)) crossing above 1.0 has historically marked the deepest months of Bitcoin bear markets within weeks. The model has fired at the 2015, 2018, 2020 COVID, and 2022 cycle bottoms.

The chart above shows every historical Pi Cycle Bottom firing with green vertical markers. The model fires only during the deepest weeks of bear markets, so signals are historically rare (4 firings since 2015). The most recent firing was around early-to-mid 2023 alongside the post-FTX cycle bottom recovery. The current ratio reading is displayed in the stats grid; values above 1.0 indicate the indicator has fired and Bitcoin is in a post-bottom recovery zone.

Philip Swift derived these specific window lengths empirically by testing which MA combinations cleanly identified Bitcoin's historical cycle bottoms. The 471-day window is the inverse of the 150-day in a Fibonacci-like ratio (150 × pi ≈ 471). The 0.745 multiplier on the 471DMA is the magic adjustment that makes the crossover line up with cycle lows. The Pi Cycle Top uses different windows (111DMA and 350DMA × 2) for symmetric reasons - 350 ≈ 111 × pi. Both indicators are heuristic, not derived from a theoretical model.

Historically yes, but the sample is small (4 firings) and past performance does not guarantee future results. Every Pi Cycle Bottom firing since 2015 has been followed by a multi-month rally back above the 200-day moving average. The signal is most reliable when accompanied by other cycle-bottom indicators: Risk Metric below 0.15, Mayer Multiple below 0.6, Fear and Greed below 25, and MVRV proxy below 0.5. Cross-reference using the Charts Dashboard for confluence before acting on any single signal.

Both indicators use moving average crossovers but on different windows and with opposite interpretations. Pi Cycle TOP: 111DMA × 1 vs 350DMA × 2. Fires when 111DMA crosses above 350DMA × 2 - marks cycle peaks. Has fired once in modern Bitcoin history (November 2017). Pi Cycle BOTTOM: 150DMA × 1 vs 471DMA × 0.745. Fires when 150DMA crosses above 471DMA × 0.745 - marks cycle bottoms. Has fired approximately 4 times. The bottom indicator is less famous than the top but has fired more reliably across cycles.

Four documented firings since 2015, each within weeks of an actual Bitcoin cycle low: early 2015 (the 2015-01 bottom around USD 200), late 2018 (the 2018-12 bottom around USD 3,200), the 2020-03 COVID flash crash (around USD 4,800), and the second half of 2022 (the post-FTX bottom around USD 16,000). Four-of-four is the historical record. Sample size is small (four cycles), and the underlying parameters (150-day, 471-day, 0.745 multiplier) were reverse-engineered from historical price - so generalisation to future cycles is uncertain. Treat as one input in a broader confluence framework, not a standalone buy trigger.

On the post-2015 sample, yes - 4 of 4 documented Bitcoin cycle bottoms have triggered a Pi Cycle Bottom firing within weeks. The 2015, 2018, 2020 COVID, and 2022 bottoms all printed a 150DMA crossover above the 471DMA × 0.745 threshold. The framework has not yet produced a documented false positive (a firing not followed by an actual cycle bottom). Statistical confidence is limited by the 4-sample dataset; the indicator could fail in a future cycle if Bitcoin's market structure evolves enough to break the moving-average relationship. The SatoshiMacro Model combines Pi Cycle Bottom with 47 other signals across 6 weighted tiers so a single-indicator failure does not compromise the cycle-position read.

Pi Cycle Bottom sits in Tier 1 (Valuation & Cycle Position) of the SatoshiMacro Model at 25 per cent of total composite weight, alongside 8 other valuation signals including its sibling Pi Cycle Top. Each signal is normalised to its own historical percentile rank, then averaged into the tier score. The Pi Cycle Bottom contribution is strongest at cycle lows when the 150/471 ratio crosses 1.0; mid-cycle it contributes near-neutral percentile readings and lets the other valuation signals dominate. The tier-averaged score contributes 25 per cent to the final 0-100 SMM composite. Historically all three documented BTC cycle bottoms (2015-01, 2018-12, 2022-11) registered in the SMM Accumulation zone (15-30), with Pi Cycle Bottom firings inside the same windows reinforcing the read.

About the author

Govind Satoshi
Govind Satoshi
Former Institutional Trader. Founder, SatoshiMacro.
Traded allocated institutional capital at a Sydney proprietary trading firm.